eCommerce Growth is Healthy but Maturing

03/17/2011

Online shopping spending is expected to surpass $188 billion in 2011, according to research firm eMarketer. The $188.1 billion forecast for online retail represents a 13.7% increase in year over year sales and excludes travel, digital downloads, and event tickets.

Looking into the Future of Online Retail

The double-digit growth rates in online retail are expected to shrink as the ecommerce industry matures. In 2012, while total online spend is predicted to increase to over $209 billion, the growth rate will decline to 11.3%.

By 2015, eCommerce sales are estimated to grow 8.1%. eMarketer principal analyst Jeffrey Grau mentions two important trends that will make an impact on online purchasing:

1. Mobile commerce
2. Daily deal sites, such as Groupon

In an eMarketer article, he remarked, “Both opportunities are expected to have strong sales growth over the next five years.”

Reported by Internet Retailer, the Commerce Department estimates 4.3% of all U.S. retail sales occurred online in 2010. eMarketer expects the amount to increase to 5.8% by the 2015.

Consumer Concerns and Behavior

From a comScore webinar on “The State of the US Online Retail Economy” (Feb 2011), rising consumer prices are a concern across income sectors. Unemployment is also a major concern although sentiment has improved for some.

In the eMarketer article, Grau commented that the majority of eCommerce growth stems from existing online shoppers changing their buying habits – purchasing more online than in physical store locations – rather than from “spending power of new online buyers.”

It is expected that over 170 million people or 76.3% of the US internet users will make a purchase on the internet by the year 2015.

eMarketer combines its analysis of retail ecommerce estimates from The Department of Commerce with research on trends to provide its forecasts.